June 27, 2022

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Cases down in UK and US

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Cases down 70% since New Year peak

February 5, 2021

Daily average UK symptomatic cases, + 20,360

Based on swab tests data from up to five days ago

Around one million weekly reporters

The proportion of newly symptomatic users who have positive swab tests

Data from 15,286 recent swab tests done between 17 to 31 January 2021.

Week before, + 28,645

Down 29%.

Peak of 1st January, + 69,000

Down 70%

UK Prevalence

One in 170 people in the UK currently symptomatic
(ONS, W/E 30th January, 1 in 65)

Dorset, Bournemouth, Christchurch, Poole, 1 in 100

London, 1 in 102

Liverpool City Region, 1 in 122

The UK R value is 0.9

England, 0.9, Wales, 0.9, Scotland, 0.9

East Midlands, R = 1.0

Cases are coming down in all age groups

France (Anthony)

Just a short note today, awaiting this week’s government pow wow announcement as to whether

France are actually going to do anything about the imminent growing problem of the

UK Variant

Now growing 60% week on week

Now 14% of all cases.

Only 5 or 6% last week

Yet still they are avoiding lockdown as the country as usual is 50/50 split on it

Très bonne soiree

US, Reducing new infections

Natural infections + vaccinations

Post-holiday surge is probably over

Reduced travel

Millions of individual and family behaviours

Gatherings down

Mask wearing normalised

Memorial Day in May

Any gatherings will cause contagious variants to spread

VOC driven increase in cases, April

Herd immunity coming, but not yet

US, CDC data


Past 7 days


New daily reported cases, down 18.8%

New daily reported deaths, up 0.3%

CoViD related hospitalizations, down 14.1% (86,373)

Test positivity rate, 7.4%

Vaccine doses since 14th December, 38,326,000

Two doses, 8,020,000 (2.46%)


UK data


New COVID-19 forecasts show the possibility of a spring spike in deaths if variants spread widely, people let down their guard


Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

University of Washington

Forecasts include vaccine distribution and the presence of the B.1.1.7

IF widespread transmission of the B.1.351 (South Africa VOC)

IF Mobility returning to pre-pandemic levels in the vaccinated

(67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated, Oxford AZ, one dose)

Approximately 654,000 total deaths by May 1

Without transmission of B.1.351, deaths drop to 595,000 deaths by May 1

Resurgence, spring in some states, California and Florida

Keeping mobility low and maintaining social distancing, 30,000 less deaths

Christopher Murray, director of IHME

Getting vaccines out quickly is essential,

and masks are still one of the best tools we have to keep transmission low

People will need to continue taking precautions even once they are vaccinated,


Some states are not re-imposing social distancing mandates even when daily death rates are high

Herd immunity, unlikely to slow transmission in the coming months

Higher levels of immunity are needed with a more contagious variant

IHME’s forecasts predict only 38% of people in the US will be immune by May 1.

Worst-case scenario, third wave next winter

Governments and the public need to plan for the real prospect that COVID-19 must be managed on an ongoing basis

It’s critical to vaccinate as many people as possible

and to prepare for long-term behaviour change

US trial

Vitamin D for COVID-19 (VIVID) study



Heading into autumn and winter

Argentina, Australia, South Africa


Heading into autumn and winter

Time to start vaccinations

Source: Dr. John Campbell

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