August 12, 2022

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Antibody data and US predictions

ONS, 19th January

December and October antibody percentages

Seroconversion, 14 – 21 days

Length of time antibodies remain at detectable levels in the blood is not fully known


One in eight (12%) up from 7%


One in 10 (10%) up from 4%


One in 11 (9%) up from 7%

Northern Ireland

One in 13 (8%) up from 2%

United States

Cases, 23,653,919

Deaths, 394,495

Hospitalizations, 123,848

Vaccinations, 13,989,000 doses given

Completed courses, 1,720,000 (0.53%)


Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

COVID-19 Results Briefing: United States of America

Current situation

Effective R, greater than 1 in 27 states

Effective R is less than 1 in most of the midwest

Estimated, 22% have been infected as of January 11

US population, 328 million

Therefore number of infections = 72,160,000

Factor of 3 more

Therefore IFR = 0.48%

CFR = 1,67%


Deaths, 567,000 by May 1

This represents 192,000 additional deaths from January 11 to May 1

Likely peak at the beginning of February

Daily deaths will peak at 3,680 on February 1, 2021

Steady decline after the peak

Reaching below 500 a day sometime in April

Factors, seasonality and the scale-up of vaccination

By May 1, some states may be close to herd immunity

If more transmissible variants spread in the US in the coming weeks

Peak could be delayed by weeks

Death toll substantially increased

Hospitals in many states will be under severe stress in the next four weeks

To reduce deaths, masks, some social distancing mandates, rapid scale-up of vaccination

Drivers and prevention

Mobility continues to decline, 33% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline

Visits to restaurants and department stores up substantially from the weeks prior.

As of January 11, 76% of people always wore a mask when leaving their home

All states had mask use over 50%.

US, 52.5% of people say they would accept a vaccine, 24.1% unsure

We expect, 141 to 179 million people will be vaccinated by May 1


By May 1, 2021, we project that 37,800 to 51,100 lives will be saved by the vaccine rollout

Compared to a no-vaccine scenario

If universal mask coverage (95%), 31,000 fewer cumulative deaths on May 1, 2021

Mandates easing scenario, 621,000 cumulative deaths on May 1, 2021

January to May, 42 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds

January to May, 45 states will have high or extreme stress on ICU capacity

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021

Detected in 10 U.S. states

Potential to increase the U.S. pandemic trajectory in the coming months

Increased transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant

Warrants universal and increased compliance with mitigation strategies

Higher vaccination coverage might need to be achieved to protect the public

Genomic sequence, National SARS-CoV-2 Strain Surveillance, targeted approach to identifying variants of
concern in the United States


Oxford Astrazeneca and Sinovac, granted an emergency use authorisation in Brazil by ANVISA today (17/01).

Sinovac vaccine, 6 million doses manufactured in China are already available and vaccination has started today

Brazil Instituto Butantan manufactures the AZ vaccine

Oxford vaccine, vaccination is expected to start soon

Source: Dr. John Campbell

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